Jayton van den Berg

Stock knowledge

Overvalued stocks

Identify high-valued projects aka overvalued stocks are the result of financial market mispricing. But how could a stock be mispriced? We’ll explain exactly what overvalued stocks are, how they are overvalued, and what investors can do to spot them!

Like any risky asset, the price of a stock depends on the level of supply and demand in the market. Therefore, whenever supply exceeds demand, the price of the stock increases, and sometimes, this price increase does not accurately reflect the intrinsic value of the stock. This happens when related stocks receive a lot of positive publicity or when a particular stock or its industry becomes popular among investors. Either way, when many investors start demanding the stock, there is a limited supply of the stock, driving up its price and potentially making it overvalued.

his increased demand for stocks to become overvalued has been especially widely publicized in so-called “meme stocks,” where amateur investors target specific companies, such as GameStop, and cause their shares to soar to the point where the company’s fundamentals aren’t necessarily true. reasonable level.

There may be more legitimate reasons for the existence of overvalued stocks. For example, if a company has a strong, reputable brand, investors may assign a higher value to its stock than the fundamentals would support. So, now that we know what an overvalued stock is and why a stock might be overvalued, how do we identify an overvalued stock?
There are a variety of ratios that can be used to try to identify overvalued stocks; some of the most common are listed below, and we’ll take a closer look at them in the following sections:
P/E Ratio
P/E Ratio vs. Growth Rate
Price-to-sales ratio
return on equity
rate of return

The price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E for short, is one of the most commonly used ratios for analyzing overvalued stocks. The price-to-earnings ratio can be calculated by dividing a company’s current stock price by its earnings per share (EPS), so investors can compare the current stock price to the level of profitability a company has achieved. The higher the P/E ratio, the more “expensive” a stock is perceived to be.

For example, if the company’s current stock price is $100 and its EPS is $5, the P/E ratio equals 20 (100 / 5 = 20) So, what kind of P/E would indicate that a stock is overvalued? It depends on the companies involved, the industry and investors. The best way to analyze whether a P/E ratio indicates that a stock is overvalued is to compare it to other companies operating in the same industry. This should help to get a clearer picture of whether the stock in question is overvalued. Compare the results with other ratios. It’s also a good idea to compare. The price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio is calculated by dividing the price-to-earnings ratio by earnings per share growth over a period of time (usually 12 months). It essentially helps put a stock’s P/E and EPS in perspective by comparing it to how fast its EPS is growing.

Unlike the price-to-earnings ratio, the price-to-sales ratio (P/S) doesn’t take into account a company’s earnings, but instead compares the current stock price to its revenue. P/S can be used to identify overvalued stocks when the company has no earnings but has revenue. As such, it is especially useful for evaluating stocks of startup companies. Like the P/E ratio, a relatively high P/E ratio can be a sign that a stock is overvalued. However, it is important to use P/S in conjunction with other analyses. Only at some point is the company able to translate strong sales and a low P/E ratio into profitable growth. Otherwise, the company will not be a successful investment, no matter how big the sales are or how “cheap” the stock price looks.

Return on Equity (ROE) is a common measure of a company’s current performance. Although the current stock price is not considered in the calculation, it can be compared with the current stock price in combination with other ratios to determine whether a stock is overvalued. To calculate ROE, you must divide the company’s net income by shareholders’ equity, where shareholders’ equity is the company’s assets minus liabilities (which can be found in the company’s annual accounts). ROE can be used to demonstrate the efficiency of a company in generating profits, where the higher the ROE, the better. A low ROE combined with a high stock price can lead us to infer that a stock is overvalued.
The yield is the inverse of the price-to-earnings ratio we’ve already looked at. Instead of dividing the current stock price by the EPS, the yield is calculated by dividing the EPS by the current stock price. For example, a company with a current share price of $100 and EPS of $5 would have a yield equal to 5% (5 / 100 = 0.05).
Anyone who has followed the financial markets for a while will know that investors are sometimes optimistic and enthusiastic about investing, and other times they are pessimistic and less willing to invest. Clearly, these market cycles have an impact on prices and valuations. The chart below tracks the P/E ratio of the entire S&P 500 Index over time.

In it, you can clearly see every famous bubble and its demise: the roaring 1920s, Black Monday in 1987, the dotcom bust in 2001, and the credit crisis of 2007/08. Looking at a number like PE over time can give you a good idea of whether a stock is overvalued, compared to the market’s long-term average, not just today’s price.

🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥In the stock market, no matter you are a novice or a veteran, everyone must be troubled by the same problem, that is how to select a profitable stock from many stocks. I will help you solve this problem. 💪The content is more important, please keep a good record

First, we have to fundamentally understand the logic of the stock’s rise, in two ways:

1. A company’s future expectations have a high upside, this kind of news is not available to most retail investors, and all the news you can see is what the bookmakers or institutions want you to see.

2. The institution or dealer cooperates with the listed company to make stock appreciation or the major shareholder of the listed company needs to realize the profit. The process is specifically divided into: bottoming-washing-stretching-profit, this type of stock we can use technology to start bottoming or washing the time point, ahead of the layout. This is why it is difficult to make money in the short term of the stock market, while the gains in the middle line are considerable! In short, the real meaning of stocks is to firmly believe in the stocks you choose. Under the premise that there are no problems in the company’s growth and finance, don’t let the ups and downs in a short period of time affect your mentality, which will lead to wrong transactions.

Of course, short-term trading is not completely unacceptable, but it requires a more accurate grasp of the news, predicting the trend of the short-term market in advance, the market is rising, and the probability of short-term individual stocks rising is greater, as well as mature technical analysis. your success rate.

Short-term stock selection method
Method 1: Before the market opens at 9:30, we have a few minutes to browse the market and individual stocks by collecting the opening prices. This is the most precious time of the day! It is the best time to capture the hot stocks of the day, because you can see You can know the opening situation of individual stocks (whether it opens high or low), and you can know the opening situation of individual stocks, what is the dealer’s plan, and you can make a quick response in this short period of time.

[00:24, 09-08-2023] +1 (269) 378-7275: The specific method is as follows.

1. Before the market opens, the stocks that may rise through various channels are included in the computer’s own stock selection range for close monitoring. *
2. After the opening price comes out, judge the trend of the market on that day. If there is no problem, you can choose individual stocks. *
3. Quickly check individual stocks, select the stocks with the largest trading volume and the largest trading ratio (the bigger the better), and write down the code. *
4. Quickly check the daily (weekly) K-line and other technical indicators of these stocks, make an evaluation, and then re-select rising stocks with technical support. *
5. After the opening of the market, keep an eye on the above potential stocks. If the trading volume continues to increase and the volume ratio is also large, observe that the pending orders for sell 1, sell 2, and sell 3 are all large orders with three or four digits. *
6. If the stock continues to go up with large orders, you should immediately buy at a price higher than the selling price (the transaction is done at a price that is preferentially bought and usually lower than your exit price). *
7. If you have no experience, it is safer to buy stocks that meet the above conditions 10-15 minutes after the market opens, considering various factors. *

Combining the above situation, choose the best stock to buy within 3-5 minutes after the market opens. The stocks selected in this way are very likely to increase by more than 20% on the day! The stronger the stock market is, the greater the increase of the top five stocks in the call auction trading volume on the day! Once you choose the wrong trend, you can sell it and choose again buy!

The key point is: correctly judge whether the current stock market is strong or weak, strong is available, weak is not available! Secondly, we should be good at grasping the current hot spots in the stock market and flexibly grasp the methods of technical analysis. Even if there are three wrong choices in a week and two correct choices in a week, you can still get more than 20% of the benefits! Even if it is wrong four times and right one time, it will not lose money (provided that the general trend is on the rise).

Smart investors know that buying stocks should be done in batches, and some people think that it is not advisable to fill positions and spread out the cost when they encounter a decline. They should buy more and more to ensure that every trade is profitable from the beginning. If the purchase falls immediately after the purchase, it means that the operation was misjudged and no additional investment should be continued.

Some people, on the other hand, buy more and more as they fall, because their buying logic is that the price is below value, which of course is that the lower the price, the more it is worth buying.

In the end which method is correct? In fact, the transaction is not black and white, and there is no absolute right and wrong. Each method has its advantages and limitations, and has its specific scope of application.

*⭕️ Techists: homeopathic trading *

The important principle of the technocrat is homeopathic trading, so most of them trade on the right and buy when the uptrend is clear.
If you buy after the rise, indicating that the direction of the trend is correct, should continue to add funds. If you buy and fall, it means that this buy operation is wrong, you should not continue to buy to expand this error, but should consider whether it is time to stop loss.
This method of buying more and more is very demanding for the buy point. It is necessary to accurately determine the key point established by the upward trend (note that it is not the lowest point at the bottom, trying to copy the lowest point is a kind of greed). If you have already gone up a lot, you still buy more and more, which will cause the purchase cost to be too high.
One method recommended by many experts is to buy a portion when the volume breaks through the consolidation platform and buy another portion when the neck line is confirmed after the breakout. If you don’t withdraw and go up directly, you won’t go up and wait for the next pullback to buy.

*⭕️ Fundamentals: Buy on dips *
If you are a value investor, you will prefer to trade on the left, and start to buy more and more before the uptrend appears. The premise is to make an accurate analysis and calculation of the company’s valuation. The buying point should be low enough to leave enough margin of safety, and the buying price of each grade should open enough gap.
At the beginning of a bear market and at the top of individual stocks, the most taboo is to buy more and more. When a large number of retail investors see a decline, the first reaction is to increase their positions and spread out the cost. This is an instinctive impulse like a moth to a flame. Like this for the valuation of individual stocks and the rise and fall of the space are not judged, blindly the more down the more buy, is the technical school strongly criticized the wrong method of operation.
The premise of buying more and more falls must be to be able to accurately judge the value of individual stocks, confirm that there is not much room for decline, and also consider the market trend and the state of the bull and bear market. Even so, it is often subject to the torture of long-term sideways at the bottom, paying a lot of time costs, which is a natural flaw in trading on the left.
The advantage of buying on the left is that as long as the judgment of the bottom area is generally successful, the cost of holding the position can be diluted to a lower level, and then the holding can be held to rise, especially in the process of turning bears to bulls, to enjoy the double income.

*⭕️ Large Funds & Small Funds *
Large funds take a long time to build positions, often need to build positions on the left, if you wait until after the rise to buy, the cost is too high. Small funds in and out of flexible, wait until the upward trend is established and then buy, the success rate is higher.
A compromise approach
You can also consider a combination of left and right trading, that is, when the midline uptrend is established to start buying, but not in a hurry to catch up, but in the short-term correction process of buying dips, pyramid-style positions.
For example, when you see a good stock, you can judge from the fundamentals and technical aspects that there is a lot of room for growth, but it has already risen sharply, so you only buy 1/2 of the amount of capital first, and then in the process of the upward trend of the stock price, once you step back to the 10th, 20th or even 30th moving average and then add positions (note: the more you add positions, the smaller the amount). If you buy a certain gear, you will go up and don’t look back, just give up the next few stalls to buy and keep the money waiting for other opportunities.
In fact, how to buy is a minor issue, more important is what to buy and when to buy. If the stock is of good quality and the stock price is at the end of a downtrend or at the beginning of an uptrend, then it is correct to buy more and more and buy more and more; conversely, if the stock is poor, or the stock price is at the beginning of a decline or at the end of a rise, then it is wrong to buy anyway.
However, it is difficult to accurately judge the position of the top and bottom. In order to prevent the risk of wrong judgment, you can use the method of buying in batches according to the actual situation and your own philosophy to avoid the risk of wrong judgment of one-time centralized buying.